Man In Space: The New Great Power Test
Posted in Unfounded Speculation
on January 28th, 2010 by
Stephen DeGrace
According to the CBC, India plans to send a man into space by 2016. It seems like manned space travel is a new symbol distingushing who is a Great Power, or destined to become one - and who isn't.
To send a person into space, a country needs to have enormous resources, highly sophisticated technological know-how, and an advanced degree of organization. Sending a man into space demonstrates a nation's economic, scientific and technological competence conclusively, symbolically placing it at the first tier of nations, i.e., the Great Powers.
The nations which have succeeded are the United States (a falling power, but still the greatest power on earth), Russia (a fallen power, but still possessing considerable potency left over from its glory days and still enormous potential - down but not out) and China (probably destined to be the greatest power on earth by the second half of this century barring surprises). Other nations with pretentions in that direction are the European Union, taken collectively, and possibly Japan.
Canada, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, maybe Brazil (but check back with Brazil in say 20 years...), and the individual European nations may have the technological sophistication and resources to do it if really pressed, but lack the overarching motivation to demonstrate their superiority. Not coincidentally, these are all middle powers with no prospect of ever becoming Great Powers in the forseeable future (although, see note about keeping an eye on Brazil). Japan is above the other middle powers, with Great Power potential. Everyone else is pretty much not in the game.
This says something interesting... being a Great Power is about, obviously, power, but also it's about attitude and ambition. India, a nation with a lower per capita income than Canada has it... Canada doesn't.
This is fine. Canada doesn't need to try and be a great power. Furthermore, sending a man into space on your own power is a purely symbolic gesture with questionable return on investment, which is probably why only those nations with something to prove ever try. However, symbols are actually much more powerful than they are often given credit for, and if India goes ahead with this, it's a sign of things to come.
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On February 3rd, 2010 Stephen DeGrace
wrote:
Iran may have recently demonstrated the desire, and they have also demonstrated command of the fundamentals, but I think they are still a very long way from being able to send a man into space and get him back alive again,and that may be a gauge, too, of how far away they are from rising above the status of mere regional power.